• Archive for April, 2009

    Flu masks work and you can make them at home

    by  • April 30, 2009 • Flu • 0 Comments

    In a world-first clinical trial of the efficacy of masks, researchers found adult mask wearers* in the home were four times more likely than non-wearers to be protected against respiratory viruses, including the common cold. The findings – published recently in Emerging Infectious Diseases, the journal of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention [...]

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    Wired notes the Flu Code

    by  • April 28, 2009 • Flu • 1 Comment

    And though it’s far too soon to panic, people who wish to take precautions against infection should see the CDC’s recommendations and Vinay Gupta’s Flu Code. From Wired’s swine flu primer. I was really pleased they covered the Flu Code.

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    Getting perspective on the risk

    by  • April 27, 2009 • Flu • 3 Comments

    New York City metro area has a population of about 18 million people. The 1918 flu infected something like a third of the population globally. CAR (Case Attack Rate) = 33%. Something like 2% to 5% of those infected died. For our calculation we will use 2%. CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = 2% 18 million [...]

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    On Black Elephants

    by  • April 27, 2009 • Flu • 6 Comments

    The Black Elephant is a combination of two common phrases. The “elephant sitting in the room” is the thing which everybody knows is important but nobody will talk about. It is a taboo. The “black swan” is an extreme or unlikely event which shreds prior risk management strategies. A “black elephant” – the phrase came [...]

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    Swine Flu: waiting for data

    by  • April 27, 2009 • Flu • 0 Comments

    So here’s the basic situation as I understand it, as of Monday morning, April 27th London time. It’s mainly defined by questions, as you might expect this early in the situation. Here are the questions and the data we have so far. 1> What’s the CFR? The lethality of a flu is known as its [...]

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    The Flu Code

    by  • April 26, 2009 • Personal • 11 Comments

    Flu Code 0.1Beta English – A Public Service from The Institute for Collapsonomics. 1) If I have any signs of possible flu infection I will stay at home. 2) I will stay away from crowds whenever possible and always wear a mask while in public places. 3) I will cleanse my hands at the doorway [...]

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