Click to Play Eelko Brouwer, Netherlands Red Cross, covers the context of sheltering for this student group.
(click the picture or here to see it full size!) A quorate majority of the Institute for Collapsonomics (known as the IfC in casual speech) passed this Flu Code themed mural today. We were somewhat surprised to see the IfC-like logo on it. Sometimes the universe is a stranger and more wonderful place that we [...]
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Three points. 1> Initial reports from Mexico were of a potentially civilization-threatening flu: infectious as hell, killing one in twelve of those it infected. 2> Response to that threat was lax: school closures were slow, testing / masks / etc. at airports didn’t happen. 3> Complacency is not warranted because of bad data. As I’ve [...]
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The following is a quote from Important Information About Swine Flu an NHS pandemic flu leaflet which should be coming through your door one day soon. DO I NEED A FACE MASK? You may have seen face masks being given out to the public in other countries on the news. However, the available scientific evidence [...]
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In a world-first clinical trial of the efficacy of masks, researchers found adult mask wearers* in the home were four times more likely than non-wearers to be protected against respiratory viruses, including the common cold. The findings – published recently in Emerging Infectious Diseases, the journal of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention [...]
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Wednesday, April 29, 2009
You’ve read the articles by now I’m sure. I’m about to find that sixth gear I’ve been sitting on all this time that I’ve been idling in 5th gear at 120 mph in the dark on iced over roads. Enjoy.
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And though it’s far too soon to panic, people who wish to take precautions against infection should see the CDC’s recommendations and Vinay Gupta’s Flu Code. From Wired’s swine flu primer. I was really pleased they covered the Flu Code.
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New York City metro area has a population of about 18 million people. The 1918 flu infected something like a third of the population globally. CAR (Case Attack Rate) = 33%. Something like 2% to 5% of those infected died. For our calculation we will use 2%. CFR (Case Fatality Rate) = 2% 18 million [...]
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The Black Elephant is a combination of two common phrases. The “elephant sitting in the room” is the thing which everybody knows is important but nobody will talk about. It is a taboo. The “black swan” is an extreme or unlikely event which shreds prior risk management strategies. A “black elephant” – the phrase came [...]
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So here’s the basic situation as I understand it, as of Monday morning, April 27th London time. It’s mainly defined by questions, as you might expect this early in the situation. Here are the questions and the data we have so far. 1> What’s the CFR? The lethality of a flu is known as its [...]
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