• Hell of a life – Kanye West – and new year’s thoughts

    by  • December 30, 2010 • Everything Else • 8 Comments

    “Hell of a Life” (fragile video, stable lyrics) really hit a chord.

    I keep circling around this, trying to be sane in an insane world. It’s breaking me, or at least my ability to function in a lot of what people call normal life. I can’t get one eye off poverty and the environment. I’ve spread my bets all over the “low end” of global scenarios, stuff which makes government planners worry. But its made mincemeat of my personal life. It’s not the kind of capacity and mindset which has proven to be compatible with small time consulting, and the big guys aren’t buying anything which doesn’t tell them they wind up on top at the end of the day. And they don’t.

    I’ve had a very interesting month failing to finish The Future We Deserve. Usually my rule is “if a thing is worth doing, it’s worth doing badly” and that’s seen me through thick and thin. This felt a little different, and I realized that I could get a book out by Christmas, and that it would be the wrong thing to do. I wanted the “second decade of the 21st century” vibe, not a “honey I got you a book about the future for Christmas.” It’s not a pessimistic book, but it’s a book full of open heavy questions and deep expressions of vision and concern. So it goes back again, and I organize some workshops to support it. And what comes out is better, bigger and later.

    I’m still hoping to get a movement around this. Two dozen people, max.

    Non sequitur. Or not. Here’s the three big lies that have crystalized in my mind through December.

    1. Lie: one day everybody will be rich.
      Truth: the earth does not have enough natural resources to support the global middle class. The poor are dying of this already. 20 million a year, a third of all death.
    2. Lie: America and Europe will look much like this in 20 years.
      Truth: they haven’t really looked like this for three generations. It’s the borrowing which has maintained the illusion of wealth. Ask the Irish.
    3. Lie: Technology will save us.
      Truth: nanotechnology and biotechnology take all the problems of the nuclear age and make them cheap and self-replicating. We can’t handle it, we have no governance or risk management. We’re going to get walloped. Hard.

    Every time I hear somebody talk about open source bio I want to shoot them.

    The problem is that I trained myself, really over 20 years, to face reality. I can’t tell you much about my childhood – both of my parents were mentally ill, and I was a witness to and the subject of incredible violence. I had massive PTSD, put myself back together with a combination of meditation and therapy (and a lot of help from Judith Lewis Herman’s work) and by the time I was thirty I was sane, enlightened in a minor way, and moving from dealing with my personal problems to the onrushing global situation. I spent nearly a year at 7500 feet with chronic drug resistant pneumonia editing the Pentagon’s study on getting the US to zero oil consumption because I believed, at the time, that it was worth dying for. In 2006, after the book had been received at HQ with massive interest and acclaim, President Bush discussed America’s addiction to foreign oil during the State of the Union address, and we knew we had changed the world just that little bit.

    Now I’m pushing 40. The bets are scattered through the low end. My life is a wasteland because day in, day out, I’m staring directly at the stuff which our entire culture is dedicated to medicating and distracting us away from noticing because it might interrupt our victory celebrations over nature and over the poor, held daily at the mall.

    Friend, we’re killing the world and the poor. Stop.

    But how?

    I haven’t trusted myself enough to lead. In all kinds of ways, I’ve measured myself against the people from prior generations who did this thing and said, subtly and realistically, “I’m not one of those.”

    The sharp end of the conflict is that the 1.0 world lifestyle is around Cuba’s standard of living. We may well get Konarka and Nanosolar to bail us out on the energy side. But we’re still going to run into uncontrolled bio. Basic land use, too. There’s far more wrong in this world than carbon. And the myth is that we’re just going to muddle through.

    And we’re not.

    The combination of sharp intellect and massive trauma is dangerous. People feared I’d grow up into a Bond villain or Moriarty when I was a teenager, or worse, and frankly it’s the meditation that saved me (well, all of us) from that. But instead I’m locked in deadly combat with threats that most people outside of government can’t even see, and those inside government that you’d expect to be on top of this stuff, I don’t know. Maybe I haven’t talked to the right people, but the noises are Not Good. Did you know there’s no credible plan for evacuating cities and rehousing the population after a terrorist nuclear weapon? Neither did I, until I invented a plan and people in the know were surprised it was possible. Now imagine you’re me: do you stand down, or keep working? A pandemic flu boss at the UN had missed critical research on stopping flu transmission in public buildings (see artificial summer) done at Mount Sinai in the US. I figured out a way of not having our biometric gear used for political killings in Iraq after we withdraw. People with lives flinch unconsciously from chasing these problems down because of all the helplessness and terror that come up when you get a really realistic appreciation of the actual situation in Iraq or in a pandemic or (god forbid) in a nuclear terrorist event in a city or some of the other areas I’ve worked on. I don’t flinch, but I live in the crater formed by not flinching and actually processing this stuff in sufficient depth to go beyond the official planning envelope and into the actual core of these problems.

    The answers aren’t going to come from electoral politics. After all, when your job is to get people to vote for you every four years, can you tell them “look, we have to half our carbon consumption in 10 years and I don’t care if the French aren’t doing that, or your children are cold.” No, you can’t do it. Democracy isn’t delivering the kind of leadership we need for this job.

    I have been refusing to lead. I’m building tools for other people to use, some recognized authorities, others for whoever perceives the problem. I’m willing to talk about how it is, but I’m not willing, generally, to tell anybody what to do or how to think or what will happen. I’m willing to talk about the present and the past with some authority, but I’m very reluctant to talk about the future. And, yes, if I’d been born 20 years earlier I would have put everything I had into the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, predicting the near-certainty of a global thermonuclear war which would have killed all of us. Fortunately that was over by the time I grew up. We got lucky on that one – rather than everybody dying, nobody did. But for twenty or thirty years, the official doctrine of the world’s biggest and most powerful countries was to kill the entire planet with nuclear fire if they did not get their way economically, and the people who actually stood up and called bullshit on the entire mess were considered nutters. Greenham Common, for all of its nuttiness, was basically sane people responding fairly reasonably to the psychopathic behavior of the governments of the world in the matter of nuclear weapons stockpiles and strategy. The world branded them mad, but they were sane.

    You’re mad. Your society tells you that you are sane, but you are mad. You can get up every morning and go to work not thinking about the scalded golfball your children’s children may well inherit, or the four or five million kids a year who die on garbage dumps of bad water and no food. The people who live comfortably in the short term and are rich and famous reassure you that this is all perfectly normal and to be expected, and it’s not – it’s the massive pathology caused by generations of excuse-making as militarily successful groups stole the land and killed the resistance everywhere there was something worth stealing. It’s the logic of empire burned into your head, telling you that you have the right to be wealthy while the poor starve, and while the processes which generate your basic essential services murder the planet you stand on. And you’ve never seen the edge of your sanity until you look at the world, and imagine that all of those other people are just like you, and feel the pain of their lives just as keenly as you do, but with much, much more to really suffer about.

    Now tell me that I’m wrong.

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    About

    Vinay Gupta is a consultant on disaster relief and risk management.

    http://hexayurt.com/plan

    8 Responses to Hell of a life – Kanye West – and new year’s thoughts

    1. Arthur Doohan
      December 30, 2010 at 3:00 am

      You’re NOT wrong…..

    2. December 30, 2010 at 7:39 am

      So much of this rings true for me personally. How to act with integrity in an insane world. How to act when all the easy to follow grooves carved by the status quo seem delusional and not worth following, yet having to exist in relationship with those following them.

      I have been a comprehensivist in the wilderness for so long, designing solutions but not trusting myself enough to lead; and in fact strongly resist that instinct to tell anyone what to do.

      Take heart that no one knows what they are doing; and at least we can act with good motive. And that you are not alone. And that example is the best form of leadership, and I at least find what you are doing inspiring.

    3. Bennycrime
      December 30, 2010 at 4:23 pm

      Great,insightful words vinay, would love to talk to you about making a film or something in 2011. :)

    4. December 30, 2010 at 5:34 pm

      This is a great post. I disagree with a lot of it, but you do your argument a great service. We should have a constructive disagreement sometime soon to (I hope) our mutual benefit.

      I’m assuming you’ve seen this:

      http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_the_good_news_of_the_decade.html

      Mark

    5. December 30, 2010 at 8:33 pm

      Maybe we need to see a Rosling-Gupta dialogue.

      In http://universalsubtitles.org/videos/BxDoaAHJnwTI/ (now in 15 languages), Rosling looks at 200 years of data, through 2 variables only, and they seem to show there could be a way forward in which we all end up being healthy and rich. (Also, I was surprised by how temporary the effects of WW1 + 1918-flu were.) — More Rosling stuff at http://gapminder.org

      Reality is much more complex than 2 variables, and as one in a myriad of factors it includes what we feel about it and how we react to it.

      I feel it’s also true that complexity includes simplicity: each neuron within our brains receives many complex inputs and can’t do anything but output one binary outbound impulse at a time. (If the science about this hasn’t changed in the past few decades, that is.)

      2011 too will be full of those impulses, for each and everyone of the big “us”, and we’ll see.

      I’m extremely interested in the FWD “movement”.

    6. December 30, 2010 at 9:00 pm

      Dearest Vinay,

      As always, a thought provoking read. Thanks for sharing, sir.

      I can’t say I agree/disagree with all of your observations because that’d take full and lengthier conversations over coffee but suffice to say *you’re not wrong* to inspire such important questions and thinking.

      I look forward to a lengthy catch up in the new year – I’m confident that 2011 will continue to lead you onwards toward the future you deserve!

      Positive thoughts :)

    7. January 4, 2011 at 3:54 pm

      Sorry I missed the FWD deadline. Too much going on as usual. But this year I want to get more involved.

      What are your plans for FWD meetups / workshops?

    8. January 12, 2011 at 8:49 pm

      Well… I have dedicated my life to prove you wrong. It’s a lot of work, I can tell you. But we are working on it. :)

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