Four undiscussed trends
by Vinay Gupta • October 18, 2010 • Everything Else • 1 Comment
Back in black elephant territory again today.
- 5 billion cell phones. Over time, much more 3G. What happens in a world where everybody has an internet-connected cell phone but billions live in absolute poverty?
- Collapse of previously first-world countries like Iceland, Greece, Ireland… and America? How does it feel for 20% of the population to go back to farming?
- Capital starvation during a period which requires radical transformation. We need to change, change costs money, and we have none. This goes straight to the heart of the big questions.
- Nanosolar and Konarka. Either we’re going to get ultra-cheap solar panels, or we’re not.
All this stuff seems to sit in the same black hole that my questions about the Big Society lived in. The most important question, to the fate of the world likely, is “can Nanosolar and Konarka and all the rest deliver?”
Only time will tell.
Knowing if “nanarka” will deliver is key to _predicting_ stuff. If the “can’t predict” stage is long-ish, then we want to look at “what to do from amid the mess”.
Most of us don’t work at the nanosolar or konarka level. Cell phones are more or less a given. Collapse and capital starvation are happening and are mostly outside most people’s hands.
It’s not surprising that people are in denial or choosing *some* gimme-what-can-i-do stuff. I think we need to feel in control of something, or we go nuts.
Any socio-psychologist at hand to help us with the mental parallel of 6 ways to die? 6 ways to cope, by any chance?
And yes, of course, we can _discuss trends_. Such a discussion would widen the field of posible individual (or group or network or facilitation of all that) action.