• price volatility and global starvation

    by  • April 22, 2008 • The Global Picture • 0 Comments

    this is *not that hard people.*

    if X is producing food more cheaply that local resources, local production will tend to drop as people buy foreign food

    if X then stops producing, or jacks prices, there will be a gap before local production picks up again due to latency

    in this gap, people starve

    why? because prices change much faster than food production can compensate, which is why we have futures markets

    but the poor do not buy food futures, the poor buy food so they are maximally exposed to price volatility.

    This is not fixable. The poor are going to get screwed by food price volatility unless they grow their own, which is simply inefficient unless, well, something very cool indeed happens to manual-labor-intensive organic farming practices, like it out-produces high input monocultures.

    Maybe one day.

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    About

    Vinay Gupta is a consultant on disaster relief and risk management.

    http://hexayurt.com/plan

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